Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 33.542141 37.763272 42.704919 49.026335 57.067983 67.213194 81.441169
2025-04-27 27.649191 32.822067 39.483664 49.065338 63.234746 84.938114 124.827471
2025-05-04 24.169437 29.759287 37.466016 49.602421 70.011760 107.810231 204.230881
2025-05-11 21.650618 27.361739 35.639106 49.625034 75.842007 134.128904 357.890517
2025-05-18 19.666137 25.331365 33.853815 49.066841 80.294460 162.822492 706.449541
2025-05-25 18.297385 23.972409 32.803390 49.405914 86.743760 206.982842 2541.050061
2025-06-01 17.074305 22.662025 31.587876 49.079647 91.586577 257.462994 NaN
2025-06-08 16.048128 21.533208 30.492185 48.696649 96.202379 323.259964 NaN
2025-06-15 15.155853 20.521994 29.452969 48.178543 100.306733 408.563824 NaN
2025-06-22 14.444676 19.733693 28.700823 48.105708 105.937675 552.091110 NaN
2025-06-29 13.727355 18.873556 27.716002 47.301423 108.809594 714.912889 NaN
2025-07-06 13.504966 18.812565 28.189183 50.013511 127.170458 1802.673156 NaN
2025-07-13 12.892778 18.058661 27.292881 49.253573 131.252904 3373.896382 NaN
2025-07-20 12.446742 17.560168 26.843999 49.572531 141.239115 23935.213684 NaN
2025-07-27 12.071904 17.157549 26.540358 50.223947 154.316354 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.676484 16.690729 26.058411 50.285658 164.750653 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.262340 16.164394 25.404933 49.729029 171.138506 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.955531 15.811652 25.078925 50.080904 185.298679 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.619210 15.385641 24.560407 49.749092 194.382788 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.303227 14.979757 24.051635 49.358083 203.181512 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.999426 14.580934 23.527399 48.828530 210.645674 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.747521 14.265527 23.160748 48.754147 223.720612 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.461533 13.873605 22.598055 47.931922 227.631942 NaN NaN